Coaches often look at statistics at the end of the game to help them determine why they won or lost a game. Every statistic tells a part of the game, but you win or lose games based on the result of a few vital statistics. The following are the top three things that win games at the youth level.
1. Rebound Margin
A major misconception among coaches is that shooting percentage is the one statistic that can tell you who won the game. Shooting is obviously one of the key statistics that determine the outcome of games, but youth games usually come down to who has the most possessions. Therefore, rebounding is the key to increasing your possessions and minimizing your opponent’s possessions.
A good rebounding team is able to win games despite a poor shooting percentage because they get extras shots off offensive rebounds. They are able to force opponents to shoot a high first shot percentage because they do not allow second shot opportunities. Rebounding should be a consistent statistic for every game unlike shooting percentages that may vary from game to game. The goal for your team should be to have a +8 or +10 rebound margin each game depending on your team and your opponent. If you can get four or five extra shots on offense and eliminate four or five shots on defense then you will increase your chances of winning games.
2. Turnover Margin
Another way to win the possession battle is to win the turnover stat. If your team can minimize their turnovers on offense and create turnovers on the defensive end then they will win the possession battle. Creating turnovers will lead to easy transition baskets for your and minimizing your turnovers will lower the transition points of your opponent.
A game typically has 50 to 60 possessions for each team, depending on the tempo of the game and the style of play of each team. If you can consistently keep your turnovers under 15 per game then you will get 35 to 45 possessions where you get a shot.
If you shoot 40 % for the field then you make 14 to 18 of your shots which accounts for 28 to 36 points, enough to win most games. If you can add points from the free throw line and get more possessions from offensive rebounds then you increase your chances of winning games.
Also, if you can force your opponent to commit about 20 turnovers per game, which isn’t difficult to do in a youth game, then you limit their possessions and force them to have a higher shooting percentage. The goal for your team should be to have a +5 turnover margin for each game depending on the tempo of the game and the number of possessions.
3. 1-on-1 Defense
The phrase “offense wins games” applies in some games but close games are won on the defensive end. If you have defenders that are able to defend one-on-one then you can minimize situations where you have to help on penetration or double the post.
It will allow you to stay with shooters and guard post players without bringing another defender. Eliminating the need for help defenders will help with creating better rebounding position, as well as keeping your players out of foul trouble. Having players that are good on-the-ball defenders that can give good ball pressure will let off-the-ball defenders be more aggressive in the passing lane and will help create turnovers that lead to easy transition baskets.
Playing good one-on-one defense will lower your opponent’s shooting percentage and help hide some inabilities you may have on the offensive end. One-on-one defense is the single most difficult thing to do in the game of basketball, but it could be the most important.
Poor defenders will allow the offense easy scoring opportunities and put a lot of pressure on your offense. You have to teach your players how to be in a good stance and slide position in order to be good one-on-one defenders. Teams with good one-on-one defenders will stop teams with good one-on-one players and consistently win close games.
Addition by subtraction
As a basketball coach you have a lot to think about. There are literally hundreds of statistics that you could be pouring over at one time or another in an effort to make your team better. All statistics are helpful in illustrating how your team is performing but by not focusing more time on just the few that mean the most can mean a huge difference in the wins vs. losses department.
